working papers

2025

1. WP

   Treasury Triparty Repo Pricing

   Mark E. Paddrik ,  and  Carlos A. Ramírez

   Submitted, May 2025

   Abstract Bibtex

   Using a confidential and comprehensive dataset, we show that the pricing of overnight Treasury tri-party repos significantly varies across market participants and depends on three factors: (1) the number of counterparties that participants often trade with, (2) the degree of trading diversification across those counterparties, and (3) the share of trading volume those counterparties account for. We also find that the pricing impact of these factors are sensitive to market conditions.

   @article{treasury-repo,
     title = {Treasury Triparty Repo Pricing},
     journal = {Submitted},
     month = may,
     year = {2025},
     author = {Paddrik, Mark E. and Ramírez, Carlos A.},
     keywords = {treasury, triparty repos, short-term funding, overnight repos},
     dimensions = {true}
   }

2. WP

   Supply Chain Risk and Inflation Dynamics

   Carlos A. Ramírez

   Aug 2025

   Abstract Bibtex

   By combining stock return data with detailed information on supplier–customer relationships and input specificity, I construct a novel measure of the U.S. economy’s exposure to supply chain disruptions. The proposed measure significantly enhances the forecasting of monthly inflation at horizons of one, three, six, nine, and twelve months. In addition, it sheds light on the upper tail of the conditional distribution of future inflation, particularly at longer horizons.

   @article{supply-chain-risk,
     title = {Supply Chain Risk and Inflation Dynamics},
     month = aug,
     year = {2025},
     author = {Ramírez, Carlos A.},
     keywords = {supply chain disruptions, supply chain risk, inflation},
     dimensions = {true}
   }

2024

1. WP

   The Anatomy of Contagion and Macroprudential Policies

   Carlos A. Ramírez

   Reject and Resubmit | Management Science, Apr 2024

   Abstract Bibtex PDF

   I propose a model to highlight the relevance of basic characteristics of the structural makeup of contagion for the design of macroprudential policies. Besides characterizing optimal policies under a variety of environments, I show that failing to incorporate said characteristics can lead to inappropriate strategies for crisis prevention.

   @article{acmp,
     title = {The Anatomy of Contagion and Macroprudential Policies},
     journal = {Reject and Resubmit | Management Science},
     month = apr,
     year = {2024},
     url = {https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FmGM23g437ISTV24UKeXxYNwAg6HKJuk/view?usp=sharing},
     author = {Ramírez, Carlos A.},
     dimensions = {true}
   }

2022

1. WP

   Regulating Financial Networks: A Flying Blind Problem

   Carlos A. Ramírez

   Under revision, Mar 2022

   Abstract Bibtex PDF

   I develop a model for studying the role that uncertainty about the susceptibility of a financial network to contagion plays in the behavior of its member institutions and the design of preemptive interventions. As uncertainty affects the perception of contagion risk, it can reshape market equilibrium inefficiencies, altering the scope of welfare-improving interventions. The socially optimal level of uncertainty depends on a delicate balance between the information technologies available to policymakers and structural features of the network.

   @article{flying-blind,
     title = {Regulating Financial Networks: A Flying Blind Problem},
     journal = {Under revision},
     month = mar,
     year = {2022},
     url = {https://drive.google.com/file/d/1u-29bQ05Yuzr5VjdOoqnug10rULaXyQD/view?usp=sharing},
     author = {Ramírez, Carlos A.},
     dimensions = {true}
   }